Tuesday, February 10, 2009

What a ride u need 2 hands, 2 feet and a helmet

and of course a prayer. The stimulus passes and I wont reiterate the headline news. Geigneir today bombed.  He will come out shinning but it wont be untill he eliminates book to bill or a more substancive plan of action. 7888 dow only 500 points from the 7300 lowest close. 6800 was the intra day low. GS is best of breed even at 90.00 JPM is 2nd. in the banks. UGA is a hold unless we go into a depresion then gas is 1.-1.19 I believe a few yrs out and its a double. ICE and Nyx best. Rig TK best there. GOOG and BIDU in search. FLR and SHG in oil sector sevices. Tech RIMM APPL and msft is a slow grinder. All the regional banks are so volatile a traders dream. The facts are 1 in 8 banks will fail to exist in 3-5 yrs. Mostly 2 billion and under in market cap. C citi is in bigger trouble then  the rest of the large caps. WMT and cos costco are best in retail. Short shld sears has a 35% short intrest witch is unbelievable. This is Lamperts first failure in life after given the helm. He did drive it to 175 from 23 when I worked there though in a few years. The market cap is 5 billion and The market has really depreciated his 3000 commercial properties. They own the most retail stored in USA. When property values went up so did sears. Its being played like it either wont make it or they have to close and sell alot just to stay afloat. Only 2 other big names in recent history had as big a short intrest Krispy Kreme and Crocks. They both held for about 2 years before caving in and going down 95% wear they are now. Be carefull we look like we are retesting the lows once we do it will be up for good this time. 3rd retest and historically this is necesary. I thought the heavy volume off of lows would justify no need for a retest. Enough jiberish G/L all