Friday, January 30, 2009

Big GDP # at 8:30 am est

5.4% decline expected, I expect the 4th quarter to be worse. Now that the new Administration's in we will get the real #'s or close to em. Notice as Bush wound down he said in November we are in a recession for over a year. The gas and oil reserves #'s started correcting, housing sudenly was worse, the banks were in worse shape then we were told etc. etc. The truth of the economic down turns have always been skewed. The public gets a real idea only when we begin to improve then we are told how deep it was. This is serious whats going on. The worst drop in the economy in 75 years.There saying 30. Last night it was stated in Davos Switserland. ( an anual world economic meeting of all countrys) the USA has lost 11 trillion in market value so far. Its said 2 qtrs and we could start to climb out. If not it will take a few years of strugling before we climb out. Obama has said it will be worse before it gets better. He too will skew the#'s and throw the kitchen sink in this qtr. He can blame Bush, push his stimulus plan maybe even increase the 850 billion already planed. Plus he gets to look like a hero in a yr if we pull out of this. The bad #s baked in if its 6.1 or 6.7 we wont hold 8000 dow. Sell it all if we break below and close there. We will know today if there will be time down the road to buy our stocks cheaper. This is the biggest GDP # in my life and just about everyone else's unless your in 70's. Theres hope yet and eventually we will climb out 7 minutes to go.