Wednesday, December 24, 2008

Its been a week since the last post hear

The interest rates were dropped to 0-1/4 % I hope this works? What a scenario Obama's walking into. You couldn't make a movie of the last 8yrs and have anyone believe it. Ya cant make this stuff up its unimaginable to create as many problems as there are. First and foremost men and women dieing daily. I cant Wait till the media switches gears and can openly film the war zones like we always have. Second the energy producers and discoverer's of oil fantasy island retreat from subsidies and tax loop holes will end.  Boy did they look out for only there own.  Any way dry ships drys lost me 5% 10.65-9.65 Now im looking for Christmas eve rally even a small one for fslr drys flr or sina. No 9500 dow in sight. Theres one week left till 2009. The million dollar ? has the market washed out all the hedge fund and retail sellers? if so is there a rally in January as we start a new quarter, new year, new administration? We haven't had a Santa rally its said due to worst economics in 40 yrs. Does 7300 hold as the low? I still think so I also think some buyers will come in soon. If they dont the Madoff and Illinois Governor will have really dampened what was setting up to be a jubilant new year with lots of hope for lots of good happenings. I much rather play long positions and calls. I don't have a problem in short positions and puts. Its a more natural play to root up then down a market. It takes discipline to not trade with emotion and look at a chart and read the trend lines direction. A higher low say 8000 has too hold! if not I cant imagine a multi yr protraction and continued correction from the finance deleveraging. Could this happen in my life time like Japan that traded to over 40,000 in the 70's and bought the Rockefeller center in NYC and were the worlds envy? Its 35 years later and there at 8500 no tax rate to speak of (1/4%) defaulted on the Rockefeller and almost all the America land marks they were buying up. We got to be better then that course they took. Theres allot of wealth that will never come back from either theft from greed or just over exuberance. The banks alone delevaging from 40-1 down to 6-8 to one will take the banks forever to trade as they did. wells fargo, goldman, bank of america, citi to name a few could easily double from hear a year out but the lofty 260. for goldman 54 for citi wont happen bared a miracle in the next 10-20 yrs 68. and 6. respectively. The 5 day drip drop selling is not good. Need to see it all back plus some up side to keep hope alive. maybe 8950-9000 the current resistance is a positive. Remember the range is 7300-9600 bottom to top for now so we are in the middle. A must to crack  9000 k or its range bound for awhile. I will post before the open. Asia is down tonight again. Chinas down again and the housing numbers for europe are expected to worsen today. America is leading the pack as far as remedies to right the ship. We are ahead of the curve in this regard. Europe is going deeper into what we are almost able to see the light on at the end. As we get closer all the Bush #'s are always worse then expected. The truth of a revised recession from a yr ago and the revised unemployment now corrected back to august is a crime. Did they think it would get better before revisions? did they not want to cause a panic?  Straight talk is what we the people vote em in office for. Not there perception of what we should and shouldnt know. These statistics are a check and balance for our economy to remedy as we go along to improve areas of weakness and offset projected deficits. We got a band aid rebate to get bush across the wire for someone else to deal with it. Problem is we needed a tourniquet. GDP that qtr popes to 3% there claim we were going to turn it around.Well it was just a nomally a blip up over a yr of crushing decline.  Well 160 billion in rebates weren't enough as the dems said. Now Obama may come in and put a infrastructure  work plan in at the price of 850 billion to ward off a depression possibility. I could go on and on but thats enough from me. Happy holidays to all